Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Tunisia
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Nigeria
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $716,759$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{682,142.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 124.9)}}\) (asimptote \(682,142.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19,008$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,442.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 125.9)}}\) (asimptote \(18,442.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,030$ on 2020-10-26

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,423$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,371.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 201.3)}}\) (asimptote \(13,371.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{268.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 248.7)}}\) (asimptote \(268.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $874$ on 2020-10-26

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,223$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,282.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 188.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,282.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $801$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,031.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 179.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,031.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,907$ on 2020-10-26

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,745$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{441,271.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 230.9)}}\) (asimptote \(441,271.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,373$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,093.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 212.8)}}\) (asimptote \(6,093.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,450$ on 2020-10-26

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $52,399$ on 2020-10-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $983$ on 2020-10-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,384$ on 2020-10-26

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,541$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,353.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,353.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71$ on 2020-10-26

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,707$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,394.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 97.7)}}\) (asimptote \(102,394.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,211$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,945.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,945.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,515$ on 2020-10-26

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,079$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,226.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,226.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.5)}}\) (asimptote \(85.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Nigeria recovered 85%
Senegal recovered 79%
Burkina Faso recovered 68%
Cabo Verde recovered 23%
Ethiopia recovered 3%

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,111$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,967.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(60,967.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,132$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,124.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,124.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,408$ on 2020-10-26

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,565$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,021.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,021.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $322$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(323.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $927$ on 2020-10-26

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,459$ on 2020-10-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 23.4)}}\) (asimptote \(55.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228$ on 2020-10-26

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $93,707$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,848.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(95,848.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,437$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,448.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 88.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,448.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,120$ on 2020-10-26